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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 11:35 AM
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Default BOE Base Rates

So we're at 0.5% now and have been for a while.

Where do people think we are going from here?

I cant see a cut to zero, so I guess we must be heading back up.


How long do you reckon till it hits 1.5%?

How long till it hits 3%?

Will it go over 6% in the next 5 years?



I reckon its going to stay down roughly where it is for at least another year, and that it will take several years till its as high as 3% again.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 11:52 AM
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Large property firms are predicting 5-6% base rate within the next 18 months...so mortgage rates will be alien to some people who cant remember the last time.

Sure going to be an interesting time
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:33 PM
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Wow, as soon as that, Id be surprised if that happens, but im sure they know better than me!
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:35 PM
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My mortgage is fixed at 5.5 percent for the next 3 years anyway so i'm not to fussed.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip
Wow, as soon as that, Id be surprised if that happens, but im sure they know better than me!

Maybe, maybe not, no-one knows whats going to happen or when, but they are prepared for it and rising rates above recent values seems a likely outcome
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:36 PM
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hopefully it says down for a while yet as my mortgage is nice and low at the moment...
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Garage19
My mortgage is fixed at 5.5 percent for the next 3 years anyway so i'm not to fussed.
even if you come off your fixed into a standard variable rate of 8-9%?
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:38 PM
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question 1 ) has lowering to 0.5% had the effect they wanted?

if it has, by enough, thay will go up soon

if it is, but not by enough yet they will go up later

if it hasnt, they can either hold it where it is, or ramp it back up and try the alternative approach. I reckon its probably too late for this, so a sudden rise shouldnt be a big risk.

as to how soon it will go up, Ive heard they reckon the effect is up to two years after the cause, altho I think this applies less so in todays unstable financial arena but certainly they used to make changes looking that far ahead.

I cant ever see it reaching 0% in this country
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Mondeo Man
even if you come off your fixed into a standard variable rate of 8-9%?
You think the mortgage rates will rise by that in 3 years???
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Garage19
You think the mortgage rates will rise by that in 3 years???
They could easily do. I'm not saying they will, jusy you'd be foolish to dismiss the situation totally untill your fixed runs out.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:53 PM
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http://www.omegaaccountancy.co.uk/ba...ase-rates.html

Check out around the middle to the end of the last recession.........
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Mondeo Man
They could easily do. I'm not saying they will, jusy you'd be foolish to dismiss the situation totally untill your fixed runs out.
Not alot i can do about it though is there?
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Mondeo Man
http://www.omegaaccountancy.co.uk/ba...ase-rates.html

Check out around the middle to the end of the last recession.........
If we ever got to 15% again, the effect would be utterly devestating, I dont believe that the BOE would ever decide again that was the correct policy, the world is a different place now to then.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Garage19
Not alot i can do about it though is there?

get a mortgage in principle on paper....it last for 6 months at todays rates keep an eye on the market......review in 6 months and do the same..........I know you're already in a deal but it 'could' be cheaper to buy out and fix at a lower rate longer term in some circumstances.

I think a lot of people will be holding off as long as possible till the signs are there of rises and doing this.......

Lots of variables to try to consider but it's worth crunching the numbers and seeing what options you may or may not have
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip
If we ever got to 15% again, the effect would be utterly devestating, I dont believe that the BOE would ever decide again that was the correct policy, the world is a different place now to then.
It certainly is, and I too would be amazed to see 15%......but I wouldnt be that amazed to see a base rate of 5-7%
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:01 PM
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My rental property is on a .49% tracker for 25 years, so no point me reviewing that, as I would never get a deal close to that in the current climate or any climate that is coming soon I suspect.

Looking to buy somewhere else as well though when I move job next, so will be back in the mortgage game for that possibly which isnt seeming like a fun prospect at the moment.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Mondeo Man
It certainly is, and I too would be amazed to see 15%......but I wouldnt be that amazed to see a base rate of 5-7%
Agreed, 6% still feels like a "normal" sort of rate to me, I wont be surprised to see it back there.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip
If we ever got to 15% again, the effect would be utterly devestating, I dont believe that the BOE would ever decide again that was the correct policy, the world is a different place now to then.
I think the effects seen last time around on 15+% would occur earlier in todays climate. Far less assets and more paper in big business, and more people owing a greater percentage on their homes. I reckon 10% would do it now.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by alistairolsen
I think the effects seen last time around on 15+% would occur earlier in todays climate. Far less assets and more paper in big business, and more people owing a greater percentage on their homes. I reckon 10% would do it now.
I reckon 10% would certainly do me in
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:27 PM
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same, and I owe less than 3 times my salary on an 80% mortgage which in todays terms is as safe as houses
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 01:58 PM
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I'm happy as larry at the moment. My mortgage rate was shite back when I got it, the companies variable rate is basically BOE + 3% which may also have been shite years ago but now is brilliant.
I'll save £150 a month when my fixed rate ends in September.

My 'esaver' bank account now earns sod all interest but who cares - I've never earned enough to be able to 'save' anyway. I'm sure folk lucky enough to afford 'savings' will be more than a little pissed right now.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 02:13 PM
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From what I have heard, the Bank were hoping to start to bring the rate back up at the end of the year - that will depend on how this "recovery" blip progresses.

JJ
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 02:16 PM
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Fingers crossed its one of those blips that lasts for 10 years
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 02:46 PM
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I have no equity, more than likely in negative equity already. If base rates went up high, I would happily be reposessed, walk away with my furniture and my Cossie.

LOTS of people are in the same boat, the property market would collapse if rates went up high and the HUGE number of repossessions that would occur. It would become a vicious circle. That's why you can't get a mortgage at the moment without a huge deposit.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 03:16 PM
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i'm hoping it stays low for a couple of years yet! then when it goes back up to 4-5% I think i'll take a payment holiday for 6months and sort a few bills out to ease the strain lol!

i'm the same as above i brought at its peak i had 30k+ equity now i'm lucky if theres 50p in there haha! it'll go back soon long term investment imo!
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 03:18 PM
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Not sure on what my current equity is, it was above 30% at one point, but could easily be down to fuck all (or less, lol) now I guess, especially if trying to sell in a hurry!
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip
Not sure on what my current equity is
it would be good to be able to access your lenders database to get a valuation on your property to check now and then, but it only seems possible if you go into a branch.
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Old Jul 20, 2009 | 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip
If we ever got to 15% again, the effect would be utterly devestating, I dont believe that the BOE would ever decide again that was the correct policy, the world is a different place now to then.
Id have to agree!!! something like that could seriously fuck up a lot of people and actually hamper the economic recovery!!!

Originally Posted by TurboShed
I have no equity, more than likely in negative equity already. If base rates went up high, I would happily be reposessed, walk away with my furniture and my Cossie.
If the cossies in your name and you were massively in debt then i doubt youd get to keep it once the courts get in on the act when your bank goes for bankruptcy proceedings against you.
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