Failed.
End of the exhaust cam has snapped off. It's a castellated socket that takes the pump drive. The bits that broke off are quite large and missing in the engine. A seized pump causes this. The cam is itself belt driven using an alloy pulley, which is more likely to fail than the pump end, so is also likely damaged.
I think it's scrap now. Needs a new engine. It could be saved, but the two jobs are about the same. Shame... it's taken months of broken tools and head scratching.
I need to figure what I should sell off the car, to regain a few quid. It's the reversing camera model, with nice enough seats. I guess the lights might sell.